Pick your poison

Farmers across the Upper Midwest are struggling with both drought and excess moisture this spring

Some areas are so wet that farmers will have a tough time planting their crops before it gets too late. Other areas are so dry that producers are worried about having a crop worth harvesting. I’ve talked with farmers in both camps this spring; opinions differ on which is worse.

If you’ve lived through both drought and excess moisture, and most veteran producers on the Northern Plains have, you have your thoughts on which is worse. Let me know what you think.

 

An old theory of what causes drought

Drought is an awful, painful thing. But in doing some research on long-term milk cow numbers for an upcoming Agweek article, I came across a drought-related anecdote that might bring a rueful smile.

In 1934, drought was hammering the Great Plains. Livestock was starving; things were really bad. A popular theory at the time was that radio waves  – a majority of American households had radios by then — were messing up the atmosphere and reducing rainfall.

The theory got enough attention that a special “President’s Drought Committee” in 1935  reported, among other things, that radio waves have no effect whatever on rainfall.

Like you, I have no idea when our current drought will end. Like you, I’m 100 percent positive that radio waves aren’t causing it.

Let me leave you with this question, though: If you were farming in 1934 and drought was crippling your crops and pastures — if you were scared and a little desperate —  would you have at least wondered if maybe that newfangled radio was the culprit?

Reversal of fortune in 2012

Some people outside agriculture seem to have the idea that farmers and ranchers agree on everything. The reality is far different. Apart from basic philosophical differences among producers, weather and economic conditions that favor some operators almost always hurt others.

A perfect example is the price of corn. The huge rise in corn prices this summer put a lot of money in the pockets of farmers who grow the crop (and, of course, who  had an average or better crop.) But high corn prices took a lot of money from the pockets of producers who feed corn to livestock.

My cover story for the Nov. 26 issue of Agweek looks at what’s turned out to be a year of contrast for area livestock producers. They began the year with so much cause for optimism. But  the drought, which ravaged hayfields and pastures and sent corn prices soaring, changed things in a hurry.

Short on fall pasture?

I drove across a big chunk of northern North Dakota recently and saw a lot of good-looking cattle. Fall pastures weren’t exactly abundant, but the cattle still had grass to eat.

Many cattle producers elsewhere in the Upper Midwest aren’t so unfortunate. Drought has wrecked their pastures and forced them to sell at least some of their animals. I grew up on a cow-calf operation. I’ve owned cattle of my own. I know what it’s like to be short on pasture.

If you’re one of the area livestock producers forced to sell animals this summer or fall, drop me a line.

A year to welcome fall rains

Fall rains can be one of the best or worst things in agriculture in this part of the world. It’s difficult to overstate the frustration that farmers experience when unwanted fall rains delay harvest and make fields a muddy mess. It’s also difficult to overstate the satisfaction that farmers experience when wanted fall rains recharge depleted soil moisture, improving the odds of a good crop the following year.

The moisture arriving this fall is welcome indeed. A summer of drought has left the region parched, and there’s little, if any, worry about finishing the rest of the mostly concluded harvest.

The thing about drought, of course, is that it doesn’t end with the return of normal precipitation. Fields won’t be recharged fully until and unless there’s a long period of above-normal moisture.

The moisture received across parts (but definitely not all) of the Upper Midwest in recent weeks is merely a start. But it’s a start nonetheless. We’ll take it.

The sky didn’t fall after all

Think back a moment to the middle of July.  If you’re an ag producer, you remember how hot and and dry it was You also remember the lamentations and gnashing of teeth about how crops would be hammered

Well, the October production report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, an arm of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, estimates that yields of most crops in North Dakota and Minnesota held up pretty well during drought. Many South Dakota farmers were hammered, unfortunately, but their peers to the north and east generally did better.

In no way, shape or form am I minimizing the drought. Some individual farmers in North Dakota and Minnesota were hurt badly, with many livestock producers scrambling desperately for pasture and hay. And no doubt crop yields would have been even better without the drought.

Of course, producers  in North Dakota and Minnesota — on the fringes of severe drought in the Corn Belt – benefited from the higher crop prices that the drought helped to generate.

My take-away from all this reaffirms one of the basic truths of production agriculture on the Northern Plains: You can never be sure about yields until you’re sitting on the combine.

 

Ambivalence about interrupted harvest?

Ambivalence is the uncertainty or frustration created when someone wants to do or say two conflicting things.

Non-agriculturalists might be wondering if farmers are ambivalent about this week’s snow and rain. On one hand, the moisture is needed because of drought. One the other, the moisture stops harvest temporarily.

The answer is simple, based on what I’ve heard from dozens of farmers and ag officials in the past few weeks. They’ll take the moisture, hands down.

Remember, harvest started unusually early this year. Farmers already have harvested far more of their crops this normal and there’s plenty of time to get the rest. Sure, they’d like to finish quickly . But the moisture is much more desirable.

Dry year, profitable year

I was talking recently with an area agriculturalist who brought up the subject of farm profitability. He’s not a farmer or an economist, but he knows farmers and has a good handle on the farm scene.

His basic point: Yeah, the drought has been stressful. But some (definitely not all) farmers in the Upper Midwest will make a lot of money this year, thanks to the combination of average yields and terrific corn and soybean prices.

For all the stress and pain that drought has brought (especially to livestock producers), this year is a keeper for many Upper Midwest farmers.

There will come fall rains?

There’s a poem, which a lot of people have read in high school or college, that begins with the line, “There will come soft rains.” (The poem, despite its placid opening line, alludes to the extinction of humanity.)

For some reason, I always think of that line when farmers talk about fall rains. In a year like this, when the Upper Midwest is battling drought, agriculturalists in the region would love fall rains. Farmers and others in ag all say say fall moisture would do wonders in improving the outlook for the 2013 growing season.

There’s still time for fall rains. But they need to come quickly.

A drought memory, a drought article

If you’re involved with agriculture on the Northern Plains, you almost certainly have some vivid memories of drought.

Here’s one of mine:

In 1988 drought ravaged much of the Upper Midwest, including my family farm in North Dakota. That summer, I returned home one weekend from my journalism job and helped my father and younger brother move cattle.

During the move, I walked across a low-lying patch of pasture next to a creek. In the past, no matter how hot and dry the summer, that small patch always had remained green. Often gnawed down by cattle, yes, but green nonetheless.

Not on this Saturday morning in 1988. The patch was as brown, wilted and ugly as the rest of the pasture. I stood there in dismay. Not even this patch was safe.

My brother, who was on the farm full time, came over and asked what was wrong.

I pointed to the grass. “Just look at it!”

My brother, a no-nonsense guy who wanted to move the cattle with a minimum of fuss, couldn’t hide his exasperation. “What did you expect?”

Well, I had expected the puny crops and withered pastures. I was prepared for that. But I had assumed this small patch of pasture would still be green. Sometimes it’s the little, unexpected things that sneak past our defenses.

In all the years that followed, I never again took that patch for granted.

My Sept. 17 cover article in Agweek compares this year’s drought with notorious droughts of the past, including the one in 1988.